Scouting Report
Trevor Zegras holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Zegras on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Cates wins 39.3% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 40.4% vs Zegras 42.6% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 63.6%
Defensive zone
Cates 73.3%
Neutral zone
Cates 54.0%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 57.5%
57.5%
42.5%
Cates
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Cates
Zegras
Last 6: Cates 1-5 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
Cates
Zegras
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cates
Zegras
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
3
Cates
Zegras
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (841)
41.1% (559)
-0.7%
Power Play
42.4% (66)
50.0% (12)
-7.6%
Penalty Kill
32.7% (147)
50.0% (2)
-17.3%
On penalty kill, Zegras has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Cates is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (749).
Cates shoots left. Zegras is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (391).
Home / Away
Cates
Zegras
Home
38.2% (566)
45.7% (247)
Away
41.0% (488)
38.0% (326)
By Period
Cates
Zegras
P1
40.5%
45.5%
P2
42.4%
36.8%
P3
35.3%
41.1%
OT
42.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
36.8%
37.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
41.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2023 | 3 | 15:45 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 3 | 00:48 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 3 | 00:36 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1 | 14:47 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |