Scouting Report
Ridly Greig holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Greig on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kapanen wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kapanen 47.8% vs Greig 50.6% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kapanen 85.3%
Defensive zone
Kapanen 51.1%
Neutral zone
Kapanen 67.8%
Result
Oliver Kapanen favored at 63.3%
63.3%
36.7%
Kapanen
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Kapanen
Greig
Last 7: Kapanen 1-6 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kapanen
Greig
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
0
4
Kapanen
Greig
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Greig
0
1
Kapanen
Greig
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kapanen
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (514)
51.5% (336)
-4.0%
Power Play
55.0% (40)
66.7% (24)
-11.7%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (38)
43.2% (81)
-3.7%
On power play, Greig has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Kapanen is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (438).
Kapanen shoots right. Greig is 57.8% vs right-shot opponents (211).
Home / Away
Kapanen
Greig
Home
47.9% (307)
50.2% (247)
Away
47.0% (285)
51.5% (194)
By Period
Kapanen
Greig
P1
42.7%
46.9%
P2
51.4%
58.8%
P3
48.4%
48.3%
OT
25.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
45.5%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kapanen
48.0%▬
48.5%
47.5%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | 3 | 04:05 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 11, 2026 | 1 | 03:18 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 09:31 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 16:34 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 16:08 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 18:21 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 18:14 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |