Scouting Report
Ridly Greig holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Greig on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kapanen wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kapanen 47.5% vs Greig 48.8% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kapanen 77.8%
Defensive zone
Greig 56.6%
Neutral zone
Kapanen 63.5%
Result
Oliver Kapanen favored at 56.1%
56.1%
43.9%
Kapanen
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Kapanen
Greig
Last 7: Kapanen 1-6 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kapanen
Greig
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
0
4
Kapanen
Greig
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Greig
0
1
Kapanen
Greig
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kapanen
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (559)
48.5% (1,133)
-1.3%
Power Play
51.0% (51)
56.8% (74)
-5.8%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (38)
46.5% (172)
-7.0%
On penalty kill, Greig has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Kapanen is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (482).
Kapanen shoots right. Greig is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (634).
Home / Away
Kapanen
Greig
Home
47.1% (340)
49.8% (681)
Away
47.1% (308)
47.7% (698)
By Period
Kapanen
Greig
P1
42.7%
46.3%
P2
50.2%
51.2%
P3
48.2%
48.8%
OT
25.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
45.0%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kapanen
48.0%▬
48.5%
47.1%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | 3 | 04:05 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 11, 2026 | 1 | 03:18 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 09:31 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 16:34 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 16:08 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 18:21 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 18:14 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |