Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Sundqvist wins 44.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sundqvist 46.1% vs Hertl 55.4% (-10.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 69.9%
Defensive zone
Sundqvist 83.7%
Neutral zone
Sundqvist 60.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 56.5%
43.5%
56.5%
Sundqvist
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Sundqvist
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Sundqvist
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sundqvist
1
0
Sundqvist
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sundqvist
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (500)
54.1% (717)
-9.1%
Power Play
54.5% (22)
61.9% (210)
-7.4%
Penalty Kill
46.0% (50)
58.1% (31)
-12.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Sundqvist is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (425).
Sundqvist shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Sundqvist
Hertl
Home
45.5% (255)
58.1% (492)
Away
45.4% (317)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Sundqvist
Hertl
P1
40.9%
57.1%
P2
46.9%
54.0%
P3
48.4%
56.6%
OT
66.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
49.2%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sundqvist
44.0%▼
49.5%
45.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2025 | 2 | 07:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 2 | 06:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 09:06 | Defensive | Oskar Sundqvist |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 08:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |