Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Sundqvist wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sundqvist 47.6% vs Hertl 57.2% (-10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 67.5%
Defensive zone
Sundqvist 89.5%
Neutral zone
Sundqvist 68.5%
Result
Oskar Sundqvist favored at 59.1%
59.1%
40.9%
Sundqvist
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Sundqvist
Hertl
Last 7: Sundqvist 2-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Sundqvist
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Sundqvist
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Sundqvist
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sundqvist
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (301)
58.1% (823)
-11.3%
Power Play
80.0% (10)
56.2% (265)
+23.8%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (85)
62.9% (35)
-19.4%
On power play, Sundqvist has a +23.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Sundqvist is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (291).
Sundqvist shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Sundqvist
Hertl
Home
46.0% (189)
59.7% (561)
Away
47.8% (207)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Sundqvist
Hertl
P1
44.7%
51.6%
P2
47.6%
63.8%
P3
48.6%
58.6%
OT
100.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
50.6%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sundqvist
44.0%▼
49.5%
47.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 18:27 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 07:36 | Neutral | Oskar Sundqvist |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 1 | 10:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 14:22 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 07:45 | Defensive | Oskar Sundqvist |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 07:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 13:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |