Scouting Report
Parker Kelly holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Fantilli wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 42.0% vs Kelly 43.9% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 88.7%
Defensive zone
Kelly 63.2%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 55.4%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 57.5%
57.5%
42.5%
Fantilli
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Fantilli
Kelly
Last 7: Fantilli 1-6 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
0
1
Fantilli
Kelly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
0
1
Fantilli
Kelly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
4
Fantilli
Kelly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (934)
44.8% (556)
-4.1%
Power Play
52.1% (73)
0.0% (2)
+52.1%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (12)
36.8% (144)
-20.1%
On power play, Fantilli has a +52.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Fantilli is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (687).
Fantilli shoots left. Kelly is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (481).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Kelly
Home
44.1% (488)
44.8% (368)
Away
38.6% (531)
41.0% (334)
By Period
Fantilli
Kelly
P1
42.0%
46.7%
P2
43.0%
48.0%
P3
39.3%
34.8%
OT
11.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
38.3%
35.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
41.2%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 19:43 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 19:35 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 04:33 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 01:56 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 19:57 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 19:52 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 01:26 | Offensive | Parker Kelly |