Scouting Report
Mavrik Bourque holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bourque wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 47.1% vs Kelly 43.9% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bourque 75.9%
Defensive zone
Kelly 51.6%
Neutral zone
Bourque 59.2%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 67.1%
67.1%
32.9%
Bourque
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Bourque
Kelly
Last 5: Bourque 3-2 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
2
Bourque
Kelly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bourque
1
0
Bourque
Kelly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bourque
1
0
Bourque
Kelly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (321)
44.8% (556)
+1.9%
Power Play
33.3% (6)
0.0% (2)
+33.3%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (21)
36.8% (144)
+6.1%
On power play, Bourque has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Bourque is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (269).
Bourque shoots right. Kelly is 41.2% vs right-shot opponents (221).
Home / Away
Bourque
Kelly
Home
51.0% (157)
44.8% (368)
Away
42.4% (191)
41.0% (334)
By Period
Bourque
Kelly
P1
44.2%
46.7%
P2
44.7%
48.0%
P3
49.6%
34.8%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
59.2%
35.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
48.0%▲
43.5%
46.3%
Kelly
22.0%▼
37.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 19:29 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 17:43 | Offensive | Parker Kelly |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:30 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 04:51 | Offensive | Parker Kelly |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 11:42 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |