Scouting Report
Peyton Krebs holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Krebs on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kelly wins 41.5% vs left-shot opponents — Krebs shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 41.8% vs Krebs 45.9% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Krebs 54.2%
Defensive zone
Kelly 61.5%
Neutral zone
Kelly 55.4%
Result
Parker Kelly favored at 57.8%
57.8%
42.2%
Kelly
Krebs
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Kelly
Krebs
Last 5: Kelly 2-3 Krebs
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
0
Kelly
Krebs
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Krebs
0
3
Kelly
Krebs
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Krebs
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (756)
46.0% (2,159)
-4.1%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
52.5% (99)
-52.5%
Penalty Kill
37.2% (172)
38.6% (171)
-1.4%
On power play, Krebs has a +52.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Krebs shoots left. Kelly is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (626).
Kelly shoots left. Krebs is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,544).
Home / Away
Kelly
Krebs
Home
42.5% (475)
45.7% (1,182)
Away
39.3% (456)
45.8% (1,247)
By Period
Kelly
Krebs
P1
42.4%
45.9%
P2
44.7%
46.4%
P3
35.7%
44.8%
OT
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
35.8%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
40.9%
Krebs
48.0%▲
45.0%
45.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 15:05 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 06:31 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 01:05 | Neutral | Peyton Krebs |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 17:10 | Neutral | Peyton Krebs |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 04:30 | Neutral | Peyton Krebs |