Scouting Report
Patrice Bergeron holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Bergeron on offensive-zone draws (93% H2H, 14 meetings). Dowd wins 54.3% vs right-shot opponents — Bergeron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 55.5% vs Bergeron 61.3% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Bergeron leads 24-16 in 40 meetings
Offensive zone
Bergeron 59.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 88.1%
Neutral zone
Dowd 75.4%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 67.5%
67.5%
32.5%
Dowd
Bergeron
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
24
(40 meetings)
16
24
Dowd
Bergeron
Last 10: Dowd 1-9 Bergeron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bergeron
1
13
Dowd
Bergeron
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
7
6
Dowd
Bergeron
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
8
5
Dowd
Bergeron
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Bergeron
Edge
Even Strength
58.2% (617)
60.7% (760)
-2.5%
Power Play
71.4% (7)
70.9% (230)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (144)
57.3% (157)
-10.1%
On penalty kill, Bergeron has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bergeron shoots right. Dowd is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (381).
Dowd shoots right. Bergeron is 61.6% vs right-shot opponents (456).
Home / Away
Dowd
Bergeron
Home
58.4% (399)
64.4% (567)
Away
53.9% (369)
60.2% (580)
By Period
Dowd
Bergeron
P1
59.0%
63.8%
P2
56.1%
58.6%
P3
54.6%
63.9%
OT
33.3%
76.5%
Final 5 min
53.5%
63.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
56.3%
Bergeron
76.0%▲
64.5%
62.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2021 | 2 | 15:39 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Apr 11, 2021 | 2 | 10:05 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Apr 11, 2021 | 1 | 11:57 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Apr 8, 2021 | 3 | 06:43 | Neutral | Patrice Bergeron |
| Apr 8, 2021 | 3 | 03:05 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Apr 8, 2021 | 2 | 02:09 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Apr 8, 2021 | 1 | 13:27 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Apr 8, 2021 | 1 | 02:34 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Mar 5, 2021 | 3 | 13:36 | Neutral | Patrice Bergeron |
| Mar 5, 2021 | 3 | 03:27 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 5, 2021 | 2 | 00:31 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 5, 2021 | 1 | 09:38 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 3, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 1, 2021 | 3 | 13:07 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 1, 2021 | 3 | 10:02 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 1, 2021 | 3 | 08:49 | Neutral | Patrice Bergeron |
| Feb 1, 2021 | 3 | 06:08 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 1, 2021 | 3 | 06:01 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Feb 1, 2021 | 3 | 03:10 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Feb 1, 2021 | 3 | 02:46 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |