Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.9% vs 52.5%). Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Brown shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Brown 51.9% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 84.9%
Defensive zone
Brown 85.5%
Neutral zone
Brown 55.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 56.7%
56.7%
43.3%
Duchene
Brown
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Duchene
Brown
Last 5: Duchene 3-2 Brown
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
0
Duchene
Brown
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Brown
0
2
Duchene
Brown
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Brown
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (193)
52.8% (284)
+1.1%
Power Play
49.2% (65)
75.0% (4)
-25.8%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
49.0% (51)
+51.0%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +51.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brown shoots right. Duchene is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (105).
Duchene shoots left. Brown is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (237).
Home / Away
Duchene
Brown
Home
54.9% (113)
53.5% (144)
Away
51.4% (146)
51.8% (195)
By Period
Duchene
Brown
P1
54.9%
49.0%
P2
52.7%
48.7%
P3
51.9%
58.6%
Final 5 min
60.6%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.9%
Brown
44.0%▼
48.5%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 13:26 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 13:23 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 07:57 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 04:21 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 16:51 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |