Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.8% vs 52.4%). Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 51.6% vs Stastny 52.1% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 57.6%
Defensive zone
Stastny 51.7%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 57.8%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Pavelski
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Pavelski
Stastny
Last 10: Pavelski 7-3 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
5
1
Pavelski
Stastny
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
2
Pavelski
Stastny
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Stastny
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (480)
51.0% (588)
-0.6%
Power Play
51.5% (97)
60.6% (104)
-9.1%
Penalty Kill
60.2% (83)
51.7% (89)
+8.5%
On power play, Stastny has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Pavelski is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (490).
Pavelski shoots right. Stastny is 60.7% vs right-shot opponents (239).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Stastny
Home
53.1% (311)
54.0% (400)
Away
50.7% (349)
50.7% (381)
By Period
Pavelski
Stastny
P1
55.4%
57.8%
P2
49.6%
52.5%
P3
51.7%
47.5%
OT
36.4%
41.7%
Final 5 min
54.5%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.8%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2013 | 3 | 14:19 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 10, 2013 | 2 | 10:46 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 10, 2013 | 2 | 07:47 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 10, 2013 | 2 | 04:08 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 10, 2013 | 1 | 17:02 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 10, 2013 | 1 | 05:46 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 26, 2013 | OT | 03:33 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 26, 2013 | OT | 01:43 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 1 | 08:47 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 26, 2013 | 1 | 15:40 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |