Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 54.2% vs O'Reilly 56.5% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 60.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 68.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 64.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 63.5%
36.5%
63.5%
Stastny
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Stastny
O'Reilly
Last 8: Stastny 5-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
4
0
Stastny
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Stastny
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Stastny
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (657)
57.1% (1,367)
-4.3%
Power Play
61.0% (118)
59.4% (286)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
61.1% (72)
52.5% (257)
+8.6%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Stastny is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Stastny shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,201).
Home / Away
Stastny
O'Reilly
Home
53.0% (464)
59.2% (936)
Away
56.7% (383)
54.6% (974)
By Period
Stastny
O'Reilly
P1
47.9%
57.3%
P2
59.6%
57.5%
P3
54.9%
55.0%
OT
55.6%
71.1%
Final 5 min
57.7%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2019 | 3 | 18:47 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 25, 2019 | 3 | 15:32 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 25, 2019 | 3 | 15:18 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 25, 2019 | 2 | 12:00 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 25, 2019 | 1 | 13:19 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 25, 2019 | 1 | 13:17 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 25, 2019 | 1 | 10:00 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 25, 2019 | 1 | 03:59 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |