Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.6% vs 56.8%). Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Stastny wins 55.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 55.4% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 52.6%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 73.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 55.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
Stastny
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Stastny
O'Reilly
Last 9: Stastny 6-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
3
1
Stastny
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stastny
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
1
Stastny
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (370)
56.6% (1,064)
+2.6%
Power Play
40.9% (44)
60.4% (260)
-19.5%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (58)
54.0% (261)
-2.3%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Stastny is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Stastny shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
Stastny
O'Reilly
Home
57.7% (215)
54.9% (801)
Away
55.6% (257)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Stastny
O'Reilly
P1
57.7%
58.0%
P2
54.2%
56.7%
P3
57.7%
55.4%
OT
60.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
57.5%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
56.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2022 | 3 | 00:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 2 | 17:55 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 1 | 00:23 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 1 | 00:10 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 3 | 04:34 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 2 | 17:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 2 | 13:47 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 2 | 04:06 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |