Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.1% vs 56.0%). Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 30 meetings). Stastny wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 55.1% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 39-33 in 72 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 57.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 67.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 63.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 62.1%
37.9%
62.1%
Stastny
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
39
-
33
(72 meetings)
39
33
Stastny
O'Reilly
Last 10: Stastny 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
22
8
Stastny
O'Reilly
30 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
9
15
Stastny
O'Reilly
24 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
8
10
Stastny
O'Reilly
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (10,616)
56.2% (15,260)
-1.6%
Power Play
59.1% (1,994)
58.8% (3,445)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (1,119)
51.4% (2,811)
+1.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Stastny is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (8,871).
Stastny shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Stastny
O'Reilly
Home
55.9% (7,073)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
54.3% (6,705)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Stastny
O'Reilly
P1
56.3%
55.6%
P2
55.4%
57.0%
P3
53.5%
55.1%
OT
62.9%
62.2%
Final 5 min
55.7%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2022 | 3 | 00:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 2 | 17:55 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 1 | 00:23 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 1 | 00:10 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 3 | 04:34 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 2 | 17:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 2 | 13:47 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 2 | 04:06 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 13, 2020 | OT | 01:26 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 3 | 09:48 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 3 | 09:34 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 2 | 18:26 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 2 | 14:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 2 | 06:30 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 1 | 02:36 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 3 | 08:10 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 3 | 07:56 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 2 | 09:09 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |