Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Stastny wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 54.4% vs O'Reilly 56.2% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 55.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 76.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 66.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 66.5%
33.5%
66.5%
Stastny
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
5
(15 meetings)
10
5
Stastny
O'Reilly
Last 10: Stastny 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
5
1
Stastny
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
4
3
Stastny
O'Reilly
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Stastny
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (859)
57.3% (1,073)
-3.7%
Power Play
59.9% (202)
58.5% (258)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
55.1% (78)
50.7% (225)
+4.4%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Stastny is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (727).
Stastny shoots left. O'Reilly is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (962).
Home / Away
Stastny
O'Reilly
Home
56.9% (596)
59.2% (765)
Away
52.5% (543)
54.0% (791)
By Period
Stastny
O'Reilly
P1
53.9%
55.6%
P2
56.2%
61.0%
P3
54.4%
52.3%
OT
53.8%
61.3%
Final 5 min
52.8%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2020 | OT | 01:26 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 3 | 09:48 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 3 | 09:34 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 2 | 18:26 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 2 | 14:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 2 | 06:30 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 1 | 02:36 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 3 | 08:10 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 3 | 07:56 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 2 | 09:09 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 3 | 19:51 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 3 | 19:45 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 3 | 08:14 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 3 | 05:11 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |