Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stastny wins 59.2% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 56.3% vs Lafferty 50.9% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 73.1%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 83.5%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 55.5%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 56.1%
56.1%
43.9%
Stastny
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Stastny
Lafferty
Last 5: Stastny 2-3 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
1
Stastny
Lafferty
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
1
Stastny
Lafferty
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
1
Stastny
Lafferty
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (412)
52.2% (366)
+5.3%
Power Play
60.0% (65)
60.0% (15)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (9)
46.2% (104)
-1.8%
On even strength, Stastny has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Stastny is 59.2% vs right-shot opponents (196).
Stastny shoots left. Lafferty is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (363).
Home / Away
Stastny
Lafferty
Home
58.3% (276)
53.1% (258)
Away
56.7% (210)
48.9% (227)
By Period
Stastny
Lafferty
P1
63.7%
52.5%
P2
57.3%
49.7%
P3
50.4%
51.3%
Final 5 min
56.0%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
57.6%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 14:55 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 3 | 17:44 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 1 | 16:49 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 1 | 13:51 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 1 | 13:48 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |