Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Stastny wins 58.4% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 55.1% vs Lafferty 47.6% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 74.5%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 81.3%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 59.3%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 60.8%
60.8%
39.2%
Stastny
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Stastny
Lafferty
Last 9: Stastny 4-5 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
4
2
Stastny
Lafferty
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
1
Stastny
Lafferty
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
2
Stastny
Lafferty
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (10,616)
48.0% (1,413)
+6.6%
Power Play
59.1% (1,994)
45.7% (46)
+13.4%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (1,119)
43.5% (184)
+9.4%
On power play, Stastny has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Stastny is 58.4% vs right-shot opponents (4,907).
Stastny shoots left. Lafferty is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,248).
Home / Away
Stastny
Lafferty
Home
55.9% (7,073)
47.3% (833)
Away
54.3% (6,705)
47.5% (810)
By Period
Stastny
Lafferty
P1
56.3%
49.4%
P2
55.4%
43.1%
P3
53.5%
49.8%
OT
62.9%
60.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 14:55 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 3 | 17:44 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 1 | 16:49 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 1 | 13:51 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 1 | 13:48 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 14, 2022 | 3 | 18:29 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 14, 2022 | 3 | 00:08 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 3 | 04:50 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 2 | 09:57 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |