Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stastny wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 54.6% vs Karlsson 48.2% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 83.7%
Defensive zone
Stastny 54.8%
Neutral zone
Stastny 84.0%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 72.3%
72.3%
27.7%
Stastny
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Stastny
Karlsson
Last 5: Stastny 4-1 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stastny
Karlsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
3
0
Stastny
Karlsson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
54.8% (1,130)
48.9% (662)
+5.9%
Power Play
59.1% (235)
46.7% (107)
+12.4%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (150)
41.2% (68)
+8.1%
On power play, Stastny has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Stastny is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (947).
Stastny shoots left. Karlsson is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (505).
Home / Away
Stastny
Karlsson
Home
55.5% (803)
46.1% (401)
Away
54.2% (712)
49.8% (436)
By Period
Stastny
Karlsson
P1
57.4%
46.6%
P2
52.5%
49.5%
P3
54.3%
48.4%
OT
69.6%
40.0%
Final 5 min
52.0%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.9%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2017 | 3 | 16:56 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 3 | 14:52 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 3 | 09:31 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 16:49 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 1 | 12:12 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |