Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stastny wins 55.2% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 55.4% vs Karlsson 51.5% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 59.1%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 54.4%
Neutral zone
Stastny 57.0%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Stastny
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Stastny
Karlsson
Last 7: Stastny 4-3 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stastny
Karlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
2
Stastny
Karlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
0
Stastny
Karlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (370)
51.4% (735)
+7.8%
Power Play
40.9% (44)
63.5% (115)
-22.6%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (58)
42.9% (133)
+8.8%
On power play, Karlsson has a +22.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Stastny is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Stastny shoots left. Karlsson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Home / Away
Stastny
Karlsson
Home
57.7% (215)
52.3% (524)
Away
55.6% (257)
51.0% (459)
By Period
Stastny
Karlsson
P1
57.7%
50.7%
P2
54.2%
51.4%
P3
57.7%
53.2%
OT
60.0%
41.2%
Final 5 min
57.5%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
56.6%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 10:34 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 10:25 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 10:22 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 08:45 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 3 | 13:34 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 2 | 00:21 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 1 | 10:58 | Offensive | William Karlsson |