Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +23.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs Buchnevich 36.3% (+23.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 96.1%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 89.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 95.0%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 92.9%
92.9%
7.1%
Pavelski
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Pavelski
Buchnevich
Last 9: Pavelski 7-2 Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Buchnevich
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Pavelski
Buchnevich
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Buchnevich
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
28.6% (192)
+23.7%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
55.6% (9)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
30.8% (13)
+31.7%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +31.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Pavelski shoots right. Buchnevich is 32.1% vs right-shot opponents (78).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Buchnevich
Home
54.2% (360)
30.4% (112)
Away
52.6% (329)
29.4% (102)
By Period
Pavelski
Buchnevich
P1
54.5%
27.7%
P2
56.7%
33.3%
P3
50.8%
27.7%
Final 5 min
51.4%
33.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Buchnevich
36.0%▼
38.5%
29.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 02:41 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 11:58 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 1 | 15:42 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 3 | 00:22 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 2 | 17:47 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 2 | 14:36 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 2 | 00:35 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 1 | 05:49 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |