Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.9% vs 53.2%). Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Evans wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs Zacha 52.8% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 81.9%
Defensive zone
Evans 78.5%
Neutral zone
Zacha 55.5%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 78.1%
21.9%
78.1%
Evans
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Evans
Zacha
Last 7: Evans 2-5 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
5
Evans
Zacha
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
54.1% (534)
+0.3%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
56.0% (109)
+10.7%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
44.8% (96)
+3.3%
On power play, Evans has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Evans shoots right. Zacha is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (306).
Home / Away
Evans
Zacha
Home
55.1% (541)
53.4% (406)
Away
50.8% (581)
52.9% (333)
By Period
Evans
Zacha
P1
51.8%
56.8%
P2
53.3%
53.6%
P3
53.8%
49.2%
OT
38.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 17:10 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 13:38 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 2 | 17:45 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 1 | 14:42 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 1 | 12:05 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 19:56 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 15:04 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |