Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 20 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Zacha 49.1% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Zacha leads 31-17 in 48 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 89.7%
Defensive zone
Evans 52.2%
Neutral zone
Zacha 70.6%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 72.4%
27.6%
72.4%
Evans
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
31
(48 meetings)
17
31
Evans
Zacha
Last 10: Evans 4-6 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
2
18
Evans
Zacha
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
6
7
Evans
Zacha
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
9
6
Evans
Zacha
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (3,695)
48.9% (5,102)
+4.9%
Power Play
60.0% (70)
55.6% (804)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,222)
42.2% (555)
+4.9%
On even strength, Evans has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,695).
Evans shoots right. Zacha is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,539).
Home / Away
Evans
Zacha
Home
53.4% (2,593)
49.7% (3,353)
Away
51.0% (2,394)
48.5% (3,108)
By Period
Evans
Zacha
P1
54.0%
49.9%
P2
50.9%
49.2%
P3
52.0%
48.1%
OT
46.5%
53.1%
Final 5 min
50.4%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 17:42 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 15:41 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 15:20 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 13:15 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 17:14 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 19:39 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 08:12 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 00:52 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 17:10 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 13:38 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 2 | 17:45 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 1 | 14:42 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 1 | 12:05 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 19:56 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 15:04 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 01:10 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 03:58 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 16:17 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 13:04 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 09:06 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |