Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +13.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Schmaltz on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Schmaltz wins 41.7% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 42.8% vs Zacha 54.4% (-13.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 85.2%
Defensive zone
Zacha 79.9%
Neutral zone
Zacha 82.5%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 83.4%
16.6%
83.4%
Schmaltz
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Schmaltz
Zacha
Last 6: Schmaltz 4-2 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
2
1
Schmaltz
Zacha
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
1
0
Schmaltz
Zacha
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Schmaltz
Zacha
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
38.5% (309)
53.9% (787)
-15.4%
Power Play
53.2% (79)
63.2% (193)
-10.0%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
44.3% (88)
-19.3%
On penalty kill, Zacha has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (309).
Schmaltz shoots right. Zacha is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (447).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Zacha
Home
38.0% (184)
56.7% (538)
Away
43.5% (216)
52.8% (530)
By Period
Schmaltz
Zacha
P1
40.3%
52.6%
P2
39.9%
54.8%
P3
40.7%
56.8%
OT
70.0%
59.1%
Final 5 min
41.6%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
40.0%▼
46.0%
41.0%
Zacha
48.0%▼
51.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2024 | OT | 01:03 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 9, 2024 | OT | 00:54 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 15:13 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 1 | 01:39 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 1 | 07:37 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |