Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 59.0% vs Zacha 54.4% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 81.7%
Defensive zone
Sturm 69.1%
Neutral zone
Zacha 59.6%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 61.0%
39.0%
61.0%
Sturm
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Sturm
Zacha
Last 6: Sturm 2-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
3
Sturm
Zacha
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Sturm
Zacha
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
60.6% (708)
53.9% (787)
+6.7%
Power Play
61.1% (18)
63.2% (193)
-2.1%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (101)
44.3% (88)
+12.1%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Sturm is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Sturm shoots left. Zacha is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Sturm
Zacha
Home
61.6% (451)
56.7% (538)
Away
58.2% (376)
52.8% (530)
By Period
Sturm
Zacha
P1
55.9%
52.6%
P2
58.9%
54.8%
P3
64.6%
56.8%
OT
70.6%
59.1%
Final 5 min
59.5%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 12:17 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 07:40 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 09:05 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 05:39 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 02:55 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 01:25 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |