Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (43.3% vs 43.1%). Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 44.2% vs Carpenter 44.1% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Zacha leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 62.2%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 66.6%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 54.4%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 50.2%
50.2%
49.8%
Zacha
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Zacha
Carpenter
Last 10: Zacha 7-3 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
5
0
Zacha
Carpenter
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
1
2
Zacha
Carpenter
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Zacha
Carpenter
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
42.8% (514)
46.2% (474)
-3.4%
Power Play
51.9% (79)
28.6% (7)
+23.3%
Penalty Kill
36.1% (61)
32.6% (129)
+3.5%
On power play, Zacha has a +23.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Zacha is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (267).
Zacha shoots left. Carpenter is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Home / Away
Zacha
Carpenter
Home
45.0% (289)
46.5% (303)
Away
41.9% (365)
39.7% (307)
By Period
Zacha
Carpenter
P1
47.4%
44.2%
P2
43.8%
40.4%
P3
37.7%
44.2%
OT
66.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
39.3%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
43.3%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2019 | 3 | 15:48 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 2 | 07:22 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 1 | 07:30 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 6, 2019 | 3 | 06:16 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Dec 6, 2019 | 2 | 11:05 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 6, 2019 | 2 | 05:38 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 6, 2019 | 1 | 19:14 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 6, 2019 | 1 | 12:30 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 6, 2019 | 1 | 04:21 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Dec 6, 2019 | 1 | 01:19 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |