Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Carpenter on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Zacha wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 54.4% vs Carpenter 48.2% (+7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 78.6%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 75.5%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 62.1%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 55.2%
44.8%
55.2%
Zacha
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Zacha
Carpenter
Last 6: Zacha 3-3 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
2
0
Zacha
Carpenter
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
3
Zacha
Carpenter
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
0
Zacha
Carpenter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (787)
48.8% (404)
+5.1%
Power Play
63.2% (193)
100.0% (1)
-36.8%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (88)
43.6% (101)
+0.7%
On power play, Carpenter has a +36.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Zacha is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (447).
Zacha shoots left. Carpenter is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (366).
Home / Away
Zacha
Carpenter
Home
56.7% (538)
48.9% (274)
Away
52.8% (530)
46.6% (232)
By Period
Zacha
Carpenter
P1
52.6%
51.9%
P2
54.8%
49.4%
P3
56.8%
41.8%
OT
59.1%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
54.8%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 05:43 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 13:57 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 02:50 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 02:48 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 12:58 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 09:48 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |