Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 51.7% vs Monahan 52.8% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 57.0%
Defensive zone
Zacha 60.6%
Neutral zone
Monahan 51.5%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 51.8%
51.8%
48.2%
Zacha
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Zacha
Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
Zacha
Monahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
0
Zacha
Monahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (646)
53.2% (823)
+0.1%
Power Play
53.0% (100)
55.3% (159)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
38.9% (72)
48.4% (95)
-9.5%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Zacha is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (476).
Zacha shoots left. Monahan is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (676).
Home / Away
Zacha
Monahan
Home
51.7% (410)
54.6% (529)
Away
52.2% (408)
51.6% (548)
By Period
Zacha
Monahan
P1
57.7%
49.0%
P2
48.9%
55.4%
P3
50.2%
53.6%
OT
35.7%
61.9%
Final 5 min
48.4%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
52.0%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 19:13 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 01:45 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |