Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 51.7% vs Gourde 46.0% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 70.6%
Defensive zone
Zacha 56.4%
Neutral zone
Zacha 56.5%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 70.6%
70.6%
29.4%
Zacha
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Zacha
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
0
Zacha
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (646)
47.2% (654)
+6.1%
Power Play
53.0% (100)
45.0% (20)
+8.0%
Penalty Kill
38.9% (72)
32.2% (87)
+6.7%
On power play, Zacha has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Zacha is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (476).
Zacha shoots left. Gourde is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (501).
Home / Away
Zacha
Gourde
Home
51.7% (410)
44.1% (322)
Away
52.2% (408)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Zacha
Gourde
P1
57.7%
42.4%
P2
48.9%
49.8%
P3
50.2%
44.3%
OT
35.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.4%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
52.0%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 11:33 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |