Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 52.8% vs Gourde 49.7% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 71.0%
Defensive zone
Gourde 65.3%
Neutral zone
Zacha 51.9%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 61.5%
61.5%
38.5%
Zacha
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Zacha
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
0
Zacha
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Zacha
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (534)
51.2% (469)
+2.9%
Power Play
56.0% (109)
42.9% (21)
+13.1%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (96)
37.5% (48)
+7.3%
On power play, Zacha has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Zacha is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (433).
Zacha shoots left. Gourde is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (358).
Home / Away
Zacha
Gourde
Home
53.4% (406)
47.8% (301)
Away
52.9% (333)
51.9% (237)
By Period
Zacha
Gourde
P1
56.8%
47.3%
P2
53.6%
53.4%
P3
49.2%
48.6%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.2%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
53.2%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 15:03 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 1 | 12:09 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |