Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kurashev shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.6% vs Kurashev 47.3% (+9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kurashev 63.0%
Defensive zone
Ryan 95.3%
Neutral zone
Ryan 80.6%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 58.9%
58.9%
41.1%
Ryan
Kurashev
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Ryan
Kurashev
Last 8: Ryan 5-3 Kurashev
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kurashev
2
3
Ryan
Kurashev
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
3
0
Ryan
Kurashev
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Kurashev
Edge
Even Strength
60.8% (263)
46.3% (203)
+14.5%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
49.1% (57)
+50.9%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (145)
35.7% (14)
+10.5%
On power play, Ryan has a +50.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kurashev shoots left. Ryan is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (341).
Ryan shoots right. Kurashev is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (103).
Home / Away
Ryan
Kurashev
Home
56.7% (201)
45.0% (140)
Away
54.8% (208)
47.8% (134)
By Period
Ryan
Kurashev
P1
56.7%
51.9%
P2
56.8%
44.3%
P3
53.7%
43.6%
Final 5 min
56.1%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.7%
Kurashev
38.0%▼
43.5%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2024 | 2 | 15:12 | Offensive | Philipp Kurashev |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 2 | 14:51 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 2 | 07:39 | Offensive | Philipp Kurashev |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 1 | 06:45 | Offensive | Philipp Kurashev |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 3 | 00:27 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 13:17 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 1 | 01:16 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 3 | 10:41 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |