Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Suter wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Suter 46.3% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-9.8%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 12-7 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Suter 81.8%
Defensive zone
Suter 81.8%
Neutral zone
Suter 84.2%
Result
Pius Suter favored at 82.3%
82.3%
17.7%
Suter
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
12
(19 meetings)
7
12
Suter
O'Reilly
Last 10: Suter 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
8
Suter
O'Reilly
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Suter
4
2
Suter
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Suter
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Suter
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (3,208)
56.2% (15,260)
-10.0%
Power Play
52.9% (278)
58.8% (3,445)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
40.3% (303)
51.4% (2,811)
-11.1%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Suter is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,386).
Suter shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Suter
O'Reilly
Home
46.8% (1,804)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
45.7% (1,985)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Suter
O'Reilly
P1
46.6%
55.6%
P2
46.0%
57.0%
P3
46.1%
55.1%
OT
44.4%
62.2%
Final 5 min
46.9%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Suter
48.0%▬
47.5%
46.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 16:34 | Defensive | Pius Suter |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 16:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 15:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 07:21 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 1 | 16:28 | Defensive | Pius Suter |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 1 | 08:41 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 1 | 05:56 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 1 | 01:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 1 | 03:40 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 2 | 03:42 | Offensive | Pius Suter |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 2 | 01:07 | Neutral | Pius Suter |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 2 | 00:53 | Neutral | Pius Suter |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 1 | 18:13 | Defensive | Pius Suter |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 15:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 07:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 1 | 14:30 | Defensive | Pius Suter |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 3 | 12:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 17:47 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 11:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |