Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +13.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Suter wins 41.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Suter 43.3% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-13.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Suter 81.6%
Defensive zone
Suter 83.9%
Neutral zone
Suter 87.4%
Result
Pius Suter favored at 83.9%
83.9%
16.1%
Suter
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Suter
O'Reilly
Last 9: Suter 2-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Suter
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Suter
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Suter
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Suter
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (740)
56.2% (983)
-13.8%
Power Play
48.0% (75)
55.5% (254)
-7.5%
Penalty Kill
37.3% (59)
52.0% (102)
-14.7%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +14.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Suter is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (565).
Suter shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Suter
O'Reilly
Home
41.8% (407)
56.2% (697)
Away
43.3% (467)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Suter
O'Reilly
P1
44.7%
54.5%
P2
41.5%
55.5%
P3
41.9%
57.1%
OT
40.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
43.5%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Suter
48.0%▬
47.5%
42.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 16:34 | Defensive | Pius Suter |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 16:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 15:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 07:21 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 1 | 16:28 | Defensive | Pius Suter |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 1 | 08:41 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 1 | 05:56 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 1 | 01:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 1 | 03:40 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |