Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +12.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Byfield wins 43.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Byfield 45.4% vs Hertl 57.2% (-12.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Byfield 64.2%
Defensive zone
Byfield 89.5%
Neutral zone
Byfield 74.2%
Result
Quinton Byfield favored at 74.8%
74.8%
25.2%
Byfield
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Byfield
Hertl
Last 9: Byfield 2-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Byfield
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Byfield
2
1
Byfield
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Byfield
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Byfield
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (759)
58.1% (823)
-11.6%
Power Play
50.0% (58)
56.2% (265)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
35.1% (148)
62.9% (35)
-27.8%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +27.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Byfield is 43.6% vs left-shot opponents (637).
Byfield shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Byfield
Hertl
Home
46.2% (442)
59.7% (561)
Away
44.0% (523)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Byfield
Hertl
P1
44.1%
51.6%
P2
43.5%
63.8%
P3
47.7%
58.6%
OT
39.3%
28.6%
Final 5 min
42.6%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Byfield
66.0%▲
56.0%
45.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 11:47 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 13:10 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 01:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 13:51 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 08:36 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 10:15 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 11:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 10:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:54 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |