Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.1% vs 52.9%). Johnson wins 56.9% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johnson 52.1% vs Thomas 52.7% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 81.1%
Defensive zone
Johnson 71.6%
Neutral zone
Johnson 51.3%
Result
Reese Johnson favored at 58.1%
58.1%
41.9%
Johnson
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Johnson
Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
1
0
Johnson
Thomas
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Johnson
Thomas
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johnson
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (186)
53.6% (924)
+1.8%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
55.2% (181)
+44.8%
Penalty Kill
37.8% (37)
44.0% (116)
-6.2%
On power play, Johnson has a +44.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Johnson is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (72).
Johnson shoots right. Thomas is 59.4% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
Johnson
Thomas
Home
51.6% (95)
53.6% (606)
Away
54.2% (131)
52.2% (615)
By Period
Johnson
Thomas
P1
46.7%
48.2%
P2
50.5%
55.3%
P3
58.9%
55.2%
Final 5 min
50.7%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johnson
54.0%▲
51.0%
53.1%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 01:38 | Defensive | Reese Johnson |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 16:15 | Neutral | Reese Johnson |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 15:02 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |