Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.7% vs 51.6%). Look for Johnson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Johnson wins 56.4% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johnson 51.5% vs Thomas 51.6% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Johnson leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Thomas 76.9%
Defensive zone
Johnson 79.9%
Neutral zone
Johnson 50.1%
Result
Reese Johnson favored at 53.9%
53.9%
46.1%
Johnson
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Johnson
Thomas
Last 10: Johnson 6-4 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
1
2
Johnson
Thomas
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
4
0
Johnson
Thomas
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
1
2
Johnson
Thomas
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johnson
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (434)
51.1% (5,350)
+2.4%
Power Play
80.0% (5)
55.8% (921)
+24.2%
Penalty Kill
40.7% (81)
49.9% (691)
-9.2%
On power play, Johnson has a +24.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Johnson is 56.4% vs right-shot opponents (165).
Johnson shoots right. Thomas is 54.5% vs right-shot opponents (2,043).
Home / Away
Johnson
Thomas
Home
50.8% (252)
50.9% (3,458)
Away
52.6% (268)
52.3% (3,504)
By Period
Johnson
Thomas
P1
52.1%
50.6%
P2
47.4%
52.9%
P3
56.4%
50.8%
OT
0.0%
59.2%
Final 5 min
51.1%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johnson
54.0%▲
51.0%
51.7%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2023 | 1 | 19:58 | Defensive | Reese Johnson |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 01:38 | Defensive | Reese Johnson |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 16:15 | Neutral | Reese Johnson |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 15:02 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 3 | 07:18 | Defensive | Reese Johnson |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 2 | 05:32 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 2 | 00:34 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 1 | 18:09 | Defensive | Reese Johnson |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 1 | 09:16 | Offensive | Reese Johnson |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |