Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Greig wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greig 48.8% vs Carrick 52.1% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Greig 71.8%
Defensive zone
Greig 53.9%
Neutral zone
Greig 58.9%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Greig
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Greig
Carrick
Last 6: Greig 2-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
2
3
Greig
Carrick
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Greig
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greig
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (1,133)
52.1% (2,513)
-3.6%
Power Play
56.8% (74)
61.3% (75)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (172)
50.7% (430)
-4.2%
On power play, Carrick has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Greig is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (634).
Greig shoots left. Carrick is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,179).
Home / Away
Greig
Carrick
Home
49.8% (681)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
47.7% (698)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Greig
Carrick
P1
46.3%
51.8%
P2
51.2%
52.2%
P3
48.8%
52.4%
Final 5 min
53.5%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
48.7%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:26 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:20 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 3 | 11:31 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 3 | 03:38 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 2 | 03:02 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 03:07 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |