Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.7% vs 54.2%). Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Greig wins 57.9% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greig 53.8% vs Carrick 53.7% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Greig 63.2%
Defensive zone
Carrick 51.1%
Neutral zone
Greig 50.6%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Greig
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Greig
Carrick
Last 5: Greig 2-3 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
2
3
Greig
Carrick
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greig
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (280)
53.8% (654)
-0.2%
Power Play
61.3% (31)
0.0% (2)
+61.3%
Penalty Kill
56.5% (69)
63.9% (36)
-7.4%
On power play, Greig has a +61.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Greig is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (214).
Greig shoots left. Carrick is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (503).
Home / Away
Greig
Carrick
Home
56.2% (185)
50.0% (328)
Away
53.3% (195)
58.0% (364)
By Period
Greig
Carrick
P1
52.8%
56.7%
P2
51.6%
51.1%
P3
59.5%
54.8%
Final 5 min
58.7%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
54.7%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:26 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:20 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 3 | 11:31 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 3 | 03:38 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 2 | 03:02 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |