Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Greig on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Greig wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greig 50.6% vs Monahan 52.8% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 82.0%
Defensive zone
Greig 60.5%
Neutral zone
Monahan 70.8%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 60.4%
39.6%
60.4%
Greig
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Greig
Monahan
Last 6: Greig 4-2 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Greig
Monahan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Greig
3
1
Greig
Monahan
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greig
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (336)
53.2% (823)
-1.7%
Power Play
66.7% (24)
55.3% (159)
+11.4%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (81)
48.4% (95)
-5.2%
On power play, Greig has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Greig is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (230).
Greig shoots left. Monahan is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (676).
Home / Away
Greig
Monahan
Home
50.2% (247)
54.6% (529)
Away
51.5% (194)
51.6% (548)
By Period
Greig
Monahan
P1
46.9%
49.0%
P2
58.8%
55.4%
P3
48.3%
53.6%
OT
0.0%
61.9%
Final 5 min
55.2%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
50.8%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 17:59 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 13:45 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 10:31 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 10:25 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 05:36 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 01:10 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |