Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Greig on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Greig wins 44.8% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greig 48.8% vs Monahan 51.3% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Greig leads 13-9 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 84.9%
Defensive zone
Greig 57.0%
Neutral zone
Monahan 71.7%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 61.6%
38.4%
61.6%
Greig
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
9
(22 meetings)
13
9
Greig
Monahan
Last 10: Greig 6-4 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Greig
4
3
Greig
Monahan
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
6
5
Greig
Monahan
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Greig
3
1
Greig
Monahan
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greig
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (1,133)
51.1% (11,356)
-2.6%
Power Play
56.8% (74)
53.7% (2,580)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (172)
46.0% (766)
+0.5%
On power play, Greig has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Greig is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (745).
Greig shoots left. Monahan is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (9,301).
Home / Away
Greig
Monahan
Home
49.8% (681)
52.4% (7,358)
Away
47.7% (698)
50.2% (7,344)
By Period
Greig
Monahan
P1
46.3%
50.9%
P2
51.2%
51.7%
P3
48.8%
51.0%
OT
28.6%
53.5%
Final 5 min
53.5%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
48.7%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 17:59 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 13:45 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 10:31 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 10:25 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 05:36 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 01:10 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 8, 2025 | 2 | 06:57 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 8, 2025 | 1 | 13:13 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Apr 8, 2025 | 1 | 07:13 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 19:13 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 15:28 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 15:21 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 02:00 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 04:37 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 15:12 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 14:56 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 08:39 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 01:13 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 01:25 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 10:01 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |