Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +11.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Greig on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Greig wins 42.7% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greig 45.0% vs Monahan 54.5% (-11.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 84.8%
Defensive zone
Monahan 70.9%
Neutral zone
Monahan 78.6%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 77.9%
22.1%
77.9%
Greig
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Greig
Monahan
Last 6: Greig 4-2 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Greig
2
1
Greig
Monahan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
2
1
Greig
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greig
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
45.2% (414)
57.1% (871)
-11.9%
Power Play
28.6% (14)
53.1% (262)
-24.5%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (21)
44.6% (139)
-16.0%
On power play, Monahan has a +24.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Greig is 42.7% vs left-shot opponents (288).
Greig shoots left. Monahan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Home / Away
Greig
Monahan
Home
46.4% (196)
55.3% (644)
Away
41.9% (253)
54.5% (628)
By Period
Greig
Monahan
P1
40.8%
53.9%
P2
46.4%
55.3%
P3
43.9%
54.4%
OT
50.0%
76.5%
Final 5 min
49.1%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
43.9%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 15:12 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 14:56 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 08:39 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 01:13 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 01:25 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 10:01 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |