Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (43.9% vs 43.3%). Look for Greig on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Greig wins 46.0% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greig 45.0% vs Thompson 44.0% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Greig 65.2%
Defensive zone
Greig 66.3%
Neutral zone
Greig 68.6%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 65.5%
65.5%
34.5%
Greig
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Greig
Thompson
Last 6: Greig 5-1 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Greig
3
1
Greig
Thompson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
2
0
Greig
Thompson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greig
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
45.2% (414)
44.6% (709)
+0.6%
Power Play
28.6% (14)
41.5% (53)
-12.9%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (21)
35.1% (97)
-6.5%
On power play, Thompson has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Greig is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (161).
Greig shoots left. Thompson is 39.9% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
Greig
Thompson
Home
46.4% (196)
45.5% (426)
Away
41.9% (253)
41.1% (433)
By Period
Greig
Thompson
P1
40.8%
48.5%
P2
46.4%
43.8%
P3
43.9%
38.1%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
37.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
43.9%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
43.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2024 | 2 | 16:40 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 27, 2024 | 2 | 09:05 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 27, 2024 | 2 | 05:33 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 27, 2024 | 2 | 05:13 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 19:44 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 15:29 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |