Scouting Report
Ridly Greig holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Greig wins 57.8% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greig 50.6% vs Thompson 45.3% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 79.7%
Defensive zone
Greig 70.3%
Neutral zone
Thompson 64.3%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 59.6%
40.4%
59.6%
Greig
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Greig
Thompson
Last 9: Greig 4-5 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
3
Greig
Thompson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
2
1
Greig
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Greig
Thompson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greig
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (336)
44.9% (642)
+6.6%
Power Play
66.7% (24)
47.9% (94)
+18.8%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (81)
33.3% (33)
+9.9%
On power play, Greig has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Greig is 57.8% vs right-shot opponents (211).
Greig shoots left. Thompson is 42.1% vs left-shot opponents (549).
Home / Away
Greig
Thompson
Home
50.2% (247)
46.0% (391)
Away
51.5% (194)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Greig
Thompson
P1
46.9%
48.1%
P2
58.8%
44.9%
P3
48.3%
41.2%
OT
0.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
55.2%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
50.8%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 03:00 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 06:47 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 19:05 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 16:48 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 15:22 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 09:14 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 16:34 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 06:36 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 05:59 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |