Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Thomas wins 59.4% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thomas 52.7% vs Seguin 54.2% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 55.1%
Defensive zone
Thomas 52.2%
Neutral zone
Thomas 53.7%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 53.1%
53.1%
46.9%
Thomas
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Thomas
Seguin
Last 5: Thomas 1-4 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
1
Thomas
Seguin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
1
2
Thomas
Seguin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
1
Thomas
Seguin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thomas
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (924)
55.0% (713)
-1.4%
Power Play
55.2% (181)
56.7% (104)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (116)
47.2% (53)
-3.2%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Thomas is 59.4% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Thomas shoots right. Seguin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (274).
Home / Away
Thomas
Seguin
Home
53.6% (606)
56.2% (443)
Away
52.2% (615)
53.2% (427)
By Period
Thomas
Seguin
P1
48.2%
54.2%
P2
55.3%
52.9%
P3
55.2%
57.1%
OT
47.1%
60.0%
Final 5 min
55.1%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
52.9%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 06:30 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 12:58 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 08:07 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 1 | 05:39 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 1 | 19:04 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |