Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Thomas wins 57.5% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thomas 52.9% vs Seguin 55.4% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Seguin 54.0%
Defensive zone
Seguin 63.2%
Neutral zone
Seguin 67.1%
Result
Tyler Seguin favored at 63.0%
37.0%
63.0%
Thomas
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Thomas
Seguin
Last 6: Thomas 4-2 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
1
Thomas
Seguin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
3
0
Thomas
Seguin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Thomas
Seguin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thomas
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (1,166)
56.9% (478)
-3.7%
Power Play
56.9% (262)
57.4% (54)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (221)
51.3% (76)
-2.9%
On even strength, Seguin has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Thomas is 57.5% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Thomas shoots right. Seguin is 60.7% vs right-shot opponents (135).
Home / Away
Thomas
Seguin
Home
51.6% (830)
57.4% (317)
Away
54.7% (819)
55.0% (291)
By Period
Thomas
Seguin
P1
52.7%
50.3%
P2
55.6%
60.4%
P3
50.6%
58.0%
OT
61.5%
57.1%
Final 5 min
56.6%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
53.1%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 15:17 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 07:41 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 07:33 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 2 | 00:25 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 2 | 00:18 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 1 | 00:52 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |