Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 52.0% vs Carpenter 44.1% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 89.3%
Defensive zone
Ryan 67.8%
Neutral zone
Ryan 87.1%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 83.7%
83.7%
16.3%
Ryan
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Ryan
Carpenter
Last 5: Ryan 4-1 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Carpenter
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Carpenter
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
2
1
Ryan
Carpenter
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (603)
46.2% (474)
+7.9%
Power Play
40.9% (44)
28.6% (7)
+12.3%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (85)
32.6% (129)
+13.3%
On penalty kill, Ryan has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Ryan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (221).
Ryan shoots right. Carpenter is 49.0% vs right-shot opponents (143).
Home / Away
Ryan
Carpenter
Home
52.5% (341)
46.5% (303)
Away
52.2% (391)
39.7% (307)
By Period
Ryan
Carpenter
P1
56.0%
44.2%
P2
48.1%
40.4%
P3
52.8%
44.2%
OT
33.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
47.5%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
52.3%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2020 | 3 | 17:14 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 3 | 17:06 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 2 | 05:38 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 1 | 01:51 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 3 | 16:48 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |