Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Carpenter on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 46.6% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 49.5% vs Carpenter 49.1% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 53.9%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 63.9%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 58.1%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 59.2%
40.8%
59.2%
Larkin
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Larkin
Carpenter
Last 5: Larkin 1-4 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Carpenter
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
3
Larkin
Carpenter
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
1
Larkin
Carpenter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (562)
51.9% (81)
-2.4%
Power Play
51.5% (134)
41.2% (17)
+10.3%
Penalty Kill
41.2% (34)
42.9% (28)
-1.7%
On power play, Larkin has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Larkin is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (232).
Larkin shoots left. Carpenter is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (91).
Home / Away
Larkin
Carpenter
Home
48.5% (388)
60.3% (68)
Away
50.6% (342)
34.5% (58)
By Period
Larkin
Carpenter
P1
52.1%
43.2%
P2
46.9%
55.8%
P3
49.2%
46.2%
Final 5 min
51.4%
40.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
49.5%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2021 | 3 | 12:36 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 2 | 14:34 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 2 | 04:59 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 1 | 07:20 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 2 | 01:24 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |