Scouting Report
Ryan Carpenter holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Joseph on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Joseph wins 36.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Joseph 43.9% vs Carpenter 49.1% (-10.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Joseph 54.6%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 82.3%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 60.0%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 54.8%
45.2%
54.8%
Joseph
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Joseph
Carpenter
Last 7: Joseph 4-3 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Joseph
3
1
Joseph
Carpenter
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
1
Joseph
Carpenter
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Joseph
Carpenter
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Joseph
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
38.9% (108)
51.9% (81)
-13.0%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
41.2% (17)
+8.8%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (2)
42.9% (28)
-42.9%
On penalty kill, Carpenter has a +42.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Joseph is 36.0% vs right-shot opponents (50).
Joseph shoots left. Carpenter is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (91).
Home / Away
Joseph
Carpenter
Home
38.0% (50)
60.3% (68)
Away
38.7% (62)
34.5% (58)
By Period
Joseph
Carpenter
P1
38.5%
43.2%
P2
25.6%
55.8%
P3
52.9%
46.2%
Final 5 min
44.4%
40.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Joseph
42.0%▬
41.0%
38.4%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2021 | 3 | 16:57 | Offensive | Mathieu Joseph |
| Mar 7, 2021 | 3 | 02:14 | Offensive | Mathieu Joseph |
| Mar 7, 2021 | 1 | 13:32 | Neutral | Mathieu Joseph |
| Mar 7, 2021 | 1 | 13:26 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 5, 2021 | 2 | 02:28 | Offensive | Mathieu Joseph |
| Mar 4, 2021 | 2 | 03:02 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 4, 2021 | 1 | 05:41 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |