Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.0% vs 54.8%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 52.2% vs Hertl 54.5% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 61.2%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 68.7%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 55.8%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Carpenter
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Carpenter
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Carpenter
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
1
0
Carpenter
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Carpenter
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (113)
54.1% (1,117)
-1.0%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
59.8% (296)
+40.2%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (10)
34.4% (32)
+25.6%
On power play, Carpenter has a +40.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Carpenter is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (88).
Carpenter shoots right. Hertl is 61.2% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Carpenter
Hertl
Home
58.5% (65)
54.3% (709)
Away
49.2% (59)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Carpenter
Hertl
P1
65.8%
51.6%
P2
50.0%
53.6%
P3
47.9%
58.6%
Final 5 min
43.5%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
54.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2022 | 3 | 13:57 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 13:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2 | 06:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 10:31 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |