Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Carpenter wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 48.2% vs Hertl 56.8% (-9.7%)
Offensive zone
Hertl 76.9%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 64.5%
Neutral zone
Hertl 51.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
Carpenter
Hertl
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (404)
57.0% (718)
-8.2%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
64.9% (188)
+35.1%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (101)
44.2% (77)
-0.6%
On power play, Carpenter has a +35.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Carpenter is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (366).
Carpenter shoots right. Hertl is 62.5% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
Carpenter
Hertl
Home
48.9% (274)
59.2% (463)
Away
46.6% (232)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Carpenter
Hertl
P1
51.9%
56.3%
P2
49.4%
55.4%
P3
41.8%
60.5%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.4%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
47.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%