Scouting Report
Ryan Carpenter holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Jost on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Carpenter wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Jost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 48.5% vs Jost 40.5% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jost 74.8%
Defensive zone
Jost 70.2%
Neutral zone
Jost 80.6%
Result
Tyson Jost favored at 73.7%
26.3%
73.7%
Carpenter
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Carpenter
Jost
Last 6: Carpenter 1-5 Jost
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jost
1
3
Carpenter
Jost
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jost
0
2
Carpenter
Jost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (2,027)
41.0% (2,014)
+8.6%
Power Play
41.5% (41)
34.2% (73)
+7.3%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (467)
35.3% (255)
+8.6%
On even strength, Carpenter has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. Carpenter is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,840).
Carpenter shoots right. Jost is 39.4% vs right-shot opponents (876).
Home / Away
Carpenter
Jost
Home
51.2% (1,290)
41.9% (1,238)
Away
45.5% (1,245)
38.1% (1,104)
By Period
Carpenter
Jost
P1
49.6%
38.5%
P2
47.7%
41.2%
P3
48.0%
40.9%
OT
55.6%
40.0%
Final 5 min
49.6%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Jost
38.0%▼
41.5%
40.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2022 | 3 | 11:11 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 2 | 06:02 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 1 | 05:34 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 1 | 05:26 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 1 | 02:26 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 1 | 02:15 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |